Fig. 11

Scenario of the Delta variant. We show the Monte Carlo estimation (over 100 independent simulations) of the cumulative fraction of infections among non-vaccinated adults (blue) and children (orange) at the end of the pandemic outbreak, as a function of the fraction of vaccinated population V. The solid curves refer to Vaccination strategy I, in which only adults are eligible for vaccination; the dashed curve refers to Vaccination strategy II, in which vaccine shots are randomly assigned to the entire population. The vertical bands represent the confidence interval with respect to the increased infectiousness of the Delta variant (parameters reported in the “Appendix”). The other parameters used in the simulations are listed in Table 2, \(q_a=0.25\), and \(q_c=0.12\)