Fig. 4

Simulation of the 90-day lockdown cases. a Lockdown is from day 5 to day 95. b Lockdown is from day 10 to day 100. c Lockdown is from day 15 to day 105. A 90-day lockdown prevents a second wave of infection. Comparing panels A and C, we note that a later lockdown leads to a higher peak and more deaths. In all the cases, the peak in the number of infections is foreshadowed by a peak in the reproduction number