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Table 4 Single transition period SAOMs to investigate international migration flows by the global South/North divide (1990–2015)

From: Global dynamics of international migration systems across South–South, North–North, and North–South flows, 1990–2015

  Transition period 1: 1990–1995 to 1995–2000 Transition period 2: 1995–2000 to 2000–2005 Transition period 3: 2000–2005 to 2005–2010 Transition period 4: 2005–2010 to 2010–2015
North–North network South–South network North–South network North–North network South–South network North–South network North–North network South–South network North–South network North–North network South–South network North–South network
Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E) Estimate (S.E)
Rate parameter 4.003 (0.421) 18.185
(0.756)
9.308 (0.400) 5.250
(0.521)
17.500
(0.736)
9.465
(0.436)
3.859
(0.423)
10.657
(0.439)
5.084
(0.267)
4.272
(0.475)
12.350
(0.488)
5.202
(0.266)
Network endogenous effects
Outdegree − 5.951***
(0.986)
− 1.561***
(0.292)
− 4.822***
(0.209)
− 4.979***
(0.710)
− 1.926***
(0.319)
− 4.739***
(0.194)
− 2.672***
(0.825)
− 2.392***
(0.388)
− 5.616***
(0.346)
− 4.245***
(0.874)
− 4.744***
(0.462)
− 4.99***
(0.260)
Reciprocity 2.264***
(0.496)
2.837***
(0.179)
1.813***
(0.114)
2.699***
(0.483)
2.839***
(0.211)
1.824***
(0.100)
3.047***
(0.535)
2.838***
(0.173)
1.990***
(0.123)
3.587***
(0.543)
4.235***
(0.292)
2.593***
(0.141)
Transitive triads (030T) 0.133***
(0.041)
0.067***
(0.004)
0.093*
(0.041)
0.048***
(0.005)
0.172***
(0.048)
0.072***
(0.007)
0.104
(0.053)
0.019*
(0.008)
Tran. recipr. tri. (120C) − 0.086
(0.073)
− 0.039***
(0.008)
− 0.104
(0.065)
− 0.026***
(0.009)
− 0.125
(0.064)
− 0.031***
(0.009)
− 0.157*
(0.068)
− 0.055***
(0.011)
Cyclic triads (030C) − 0.086
(0.110)
0.008
(0.011)
0.009
(0.076)
0.028*
(0.014)
− 0.072
(0.082)
− 0.027
(0.014)
0.174
(0.102)
0.114***
(0.023)
GWDSP mixed-star − 0.104***
(0.020)
− 0.044**
(0.019)
− 0.042
(0.023)
− 0.130***
(0.0268)
GWDSP in-star 0.080***
(0.018)
0.023
(0.015)
0.032
(0.019)
0.086***
(0.024)
Indegree—popularity 0.605
(0.353)
0.450***
(0.052)
0.526***
(0.065)
0.997***
(0.266)
0.662***
(0.066)
0.462***
(0.049)
0.605
(0.326)
0.495***
(0.049)
0.706***
(0.071)
1.162***
(0.324)
0.755***
(0.087)
0.421***
(0.086)
Outdegree—popularity − 0.247
(0.483)
− 0.807***
(0.090)
− 0.156*
(0.068)
− 0.687*
(0.315)
− 0.957***
(0.097)
− 0.107
(0.055)
− 0.731
(0.416)
− 0.693***
(0.097)
− 0.285***
(0.073)
− 1.190***
(0.382)
− 0.935***
(0.110)
− 0.027
(0.093)
Outdegree—activity 0.380***
(0.128)
0.047
(0.025)
0.192***
(0.023)
0.355***
(0.010)
0.026
(0.028)
0.237***
(0.023)
0.091
(0.121)
0.092***
(0.034)
0.333***
(0.046)
0.122
(0.132)
0.166***
(0.042)
0.198***
(0.029)
MST linkages
Common language 0.381
(0.459)
0.397***
(0.066)
0.688***
(0.108)
1.387***
(0.426)
0.378***
(0.065)
0.669***
(0.101)
0.815
(0.438)
0.350***
(0.077)
0.629***
(0.138)
0.714
(0.434)
0.219***
(0.084)
0.446***
(0.145)
Contiguous border 1.551****
(0.353)
1.925***
(0.398)
1.043*
(0.513)
1.162***
(0.331)
1.566***
(0.364)
1.344**
(0.531)
0.725
(0.384)
1.624***
(0.458)
1.468*
(0.678)
0.516
(0.367)
1.674***
(0.447)
1.219
(0.766)
Same region 0.325
(0.224)
0.567***
(0.080)
1.050***
(0.189)
− 0.154
(0.242)
0.679***
(0.086)
0.928***
(0.181)
0.041
(0.277)
0.627***
(0.106)
1.153***
(0.257)
0.329
(0.225)
0.626***
(0.105)
1.251***
(0.262)
Shared IGO 0.423
(0.494)
0.761***
(0.141)
0.951*
(0.417)
0.143
(0.315)
0.1545
(0.092)
0.159
(0.320)
0.122
(0.314)
0.252**
(0.103)
0.373
(0.311)
0.132
(0.198)
0.552***
(0.115)
0.212
(0.129)
GDP – inflows 0.105
(0.111)
0.333***
(0.036)
0.103**
(0.043)
− 0.151
(0.088)
0.033
(0.034)
− 0.109***
(0.036)
− 0.034
(0.098)
0.051
(0.048)
− 0.123*
(0.054)
0.081
(0.115)
0.241***
(0.041)
0.085
(0.057)
GDP—outflows 0.132
(0.101)
− 0.148***
(0.036)
− 0.063
(0.040)
0.115
(0.082)
− 0.121***
(0.043)
0.017
(0.035)
0.079
(0.102)
− 0.020
(0.043)
− 0.024
(0.046)
− 0.353***
(0.126)
− 0.237***
(0.059)
− 0.032
(0.047)
Other controls
Old age dep.—inflows − 0.008
(0.024)
0.016
(0.010)
0.003
(0.008)
0.044*
(0.022)
− 0.044***
(0.012)
0.024***
(0.007)
0.011
(0.020)
0.023*
(0.011)
− 0.029***
(0.009)
− 0.005
(0.019)
0.034***
(0.010)
0.013
(0.008)
Old age dep.—outflows − 0.002
(0.023)
− 0.046***
(0.011)
− 0.005
(0.010)
− 0.0224
(0.018)
0.007
(0.011)
− 0.043***
(0.007)
− 0.051*
(0.023)
0.029*
(0.011)
0.010
(0.011)
− 0.024
(0.023)
− 0.132***
(0.025)
− 0.017
(0.009)
Population—inflows − 0.011
(0.191)
− 0.052*
(0.026)
0.017
(0.039)
0.344***
(0.132)
0.132***
(0.032)
0.189***
(0.034)
0.193
(0.162)
0.099***
(0.035)
0.105**
(0.045)
0.137
(0.174)
− 0.046
(0.034)
0.015
(0.049)
Population—outflows 0.058
(0.135)
0.049
(0.026)
0.248***
(0.039)
− 0.055
(0.120)
0.089***
(0.033)
0.131***
(0.030)
0.272
(0.156)
− 0.021
(0.031)
0.138***
(0.044)
0.492**
(0.210)
− 0.132**
(0.052)
0.143***
(0.046)
Coups—inflows − 0.123
(6.051)
− 1.374***
(0.266)
− 1.316**
(0.551)
2.141
(4.906)
0.232
(0.303)
1.461***
(0.530)
5.030
(5.328)
− 0.931***
(0.348)
− 0.782
(0.712)
− 4.546
(6.185)
− 0.192
(0.360)
1.746**
(0.730)
Coups—outflows − 0.265
(5.349)
0.217
(0.263)
0.362
(0.404)
6.186
(4.624)
0.293
(0.265)
− 0.120
(0.344)
− 6.936
(6.082)
0.483
(0.311)
− 0.349
(0.510)
− 13.114
(7.674)
− 0.224
(0.433)
0.073
(0.507)
Goodness of fit
Indegree or inflows 0.680 0.040 0.564 0.687 0.212 0.055 0.824 0.369 0.386 0.884 0.134 0.188
Outdegree or outflows 0.836 0.304 0.024 0.802 0.224 0.020 0.732 0.445 0.205 0.282 0.924 0.237
  1. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 (two-tailed tests)