Table 4 Single transition period SAOMs to investigate international migration flows by the global South/North divide (1990–2015)

Rate parameter

4.003 (0.421)

18.185

(0.756)

9.308 (0.400)

5.250

(0.521)

17.500

(0.736)

9.465

(0.436)

3.859

(0.423)

10.657

(0.439)

5.084

(0.267)

4.272

(0.475)

12.350

(0.488)

5.202

(0.266)

Network endogenous effects

Outdegree

− 5.951***

(0.986)

− 1.561***

(0.292)

− 4.822***

(0.209)

− 4.979***

(0.710)

− 1.926***

(0.319)

− 4.739***

(0.194)

− 2.672***

(0.825)

− 2.392***

(0.388)

− 5.616***

(0.346)

− 4.245***

(0.874)

− 4.744***

(0.462)

− 4.99***

(0.260)

Reciprocity

2.264***

(0.496)

2.837***

(0.179)

1.813***

(0.114)

2.699***

(0.483)

2.839***

(0.211)

1.824***

(0.100)

3.047***

(0.535)

2.838***

(0.173)

1.990***

(0.123)

3.587***

(0.543)

4.235***

(0.292)

2.593***

(0.141)

Transitive triads (030T)

0.133***

(0.041)

0.067***

(0.004)

–

0.093*

(0.041)

0.048***

(0.005)

–

0.172***

(0.048)

0.072***

(0.007)

–

0.104

(0.053)

0.019*

(0.008)

–

Tran. recipr. tri. (120C)

− 0.086

(0.073)

− 0.039***

(0.008)

–

− 0.104

(0.065)

− 0.026***

(0.009)

–

− 0.125

(0.064)

− 0.031***

(0.009)

–

− 0.157*

(0.068)

− 0.055***

(0.011)

–

Cyclic triads (030C)

− 0.086

(0.110)

0.008

(0.011)

–

0.009

(0.076)

0.028*

(0.014)

–

− 0.072

(0.082)

− 0.027

(0.014)

–

0.174

(0.102)

0.114***

(0.023)

–

GWDSP mixed-star

–

–

− 0.104***

(0.020)

–

–

− 0.044**

(0.019)

–

–

− 0.042

(0.023)

–

–

− 0.130***

(0.0268)

GWDSP in-star

–

–

0.080***

(0.018)

–

–

0.023

(0.015)

–

–

0.032

(0.019)

–

–

0.086***

(0.024)

Indegree—popularity

0.605

(0.353)

0.450***

(0.052)

0.526***

(0.065)

0.997***

(0.266)

0.662***

(0.066)

0.462***

(0.049)

0.605

(0.326)

0.495***

(0.049)

0.706***

(0.071)

1.162***

(0.324)

0.755***

(0.087)

0.421***

(0.086)

Outdegree—popularity

− 0.247

(0.483)

− 0.807***

(0.090)

− 0.156*

(0.068)

− 0.687*

(0.315)

− 0.957***

(0.097)

− 0.107

(0.055)

− 0.731

(0.416)

− 0.693***

(0.097)

− 0.285***

(0.073)

− 1.190***

(0.382)

− 0.935***

(0.110)

− 0.027

(0.093)

Outdegree—activity

0.380***

(0.128)

0.047

(0.025)

0.192***

(0.023)

0.355***

(0.010)

0.026

(0.028)

0.237***

(0.023)

0.091

(0.121)

0.092***

(0.034)

0.333***

(0.046)

0.122

(0.132)

0.166***

(0.042)

0.198***

(0.029)

MST linkages

Common language

0.381

(0.459)

0.397***

(0.066)

0.688***

(0.108)

1.387***

(0.426)

0.378***

(0.065)

0.669***

(0.101)

0.815

(0.438)

0.350***

(0.077)

0.629***

(0.138)

0.714

(0.434)

0.219***

(0.084)

0.446***

(0.145)

Contiguous border

1.551****

(0.353)

1.925***

(0.398)

1.043*

(0.513)

1.162***

(0.331)

1.566***

(0.364)

1.344**

(0.531)

0.725

(0.384)

1.624***

(0.458)

1.468*

(0.678)

0.516

(0.367)

1.674***

(0.447)

1.219

(0.766)

Same region

0.325

(0.224)

0.567***

(0.080)

1.050***

(0.189)

− 0.154

(0.242)

0.679***

(0.086)

0.928***

(0.181)

0.041

(0.277)

0.627***

(0.106)

1.153***

(0.257)

0.329

(0.225)

0.626***

(0.105)

1.251***

(0.262)

Shared IGO

0.423

(0.494)

0.761***

(0.141)

0.951*

(0.417)

0.143

(0.315)

0.1545

(0.092)

0.159

(0.320)

0.122

(0.314)

0.252**

(0.103)

0.373

(0.311)

0.132

(0.198)

0.552***

(0.115)

0.212

(0.129)

GDP – inflows

0.105

(0.111)

0.333***

(0.036)

0.103**

(0.043)

− 0.151

(0.088)

0.033

(0.034)

− 0.109***

(0.036)

− 0.034

(0.098)

0.051

(0.048)

− 0.123*

(0.054)

0.081

(0.115)

0.241***

(0.041)

0.085

(0.057)

GDP—outflows

0.132

(0.101)

− 0.148***

(0.036)

− 0.063

(0.040)

0.115

(0.082)

− 0.121***

(0.043)

0.017

(0.035)

0.079

(0.102)

− 0.020

(0.043)

− 0.024

(0.046)

− 0.353***

(0.126)

− 0.237***

(0.059)

− 0.032

(0.047)

Other controls

Old age dep.—inflows

− 0.008

(0.024)

0.016

(0.010)

0.003

(0.008)

0.044*

(0.022)

− 0.044***

(0.012)

0.024***

(0.007)

0.011

(0.020)

0.023*

(0.011)

− 0.029***

(0.009)

− 0.005

(0.019)

0.034***

(0.010)

0.013

(0.008)

Old age dep.—outflows

− 0.002

(0.023)

− 0.046***

(0.011)

− 0.005

(0.010)

− 0.0224

(0.018)

0.007

(0.011)

− 0.043***

(0.007)

− 0.051*

(0.023)

0.029*

(0.011)

0.010

(0.011)

− 0.024

(0.023)

− 0.132***

(0.025)

− 0.017

(0.009)

Population—inflows

− 0.011

(0.191)

− 0.052*

(0.026)

0.017

(0.039)

0.344***

(0.132)

0.132***

(0.032)

0.189***

(0.034)

0.193

(0.162)

0.099***

(0.035)

0.105**

(0.045)

0.137

(0.174)

− 0.046

(0.034)

0.015

(0.049)

Population—outflows

0.058

(0.135)

0.049

(0.026)

0.248***

(0.039)

− 0.055

(0.120)

0.089***

(0.033)

0.131***

(0.030)

0.272

(0.156)

− 0.021

(0.031)

0.138***

(0.044)

0.492**

(0.210)

− 0.132**

(0.052)

0.143***

(0.046)

Coups—inflows

− 0.123

(6.051)

− 1.374***

(0.266)

− 1.316**

(0.551)

2.141

(4.906)

0.232

(0.303)

1.461***

(0.530)

5.030

(5.328)

− 0.931***

(0.348)

− 0.782

(0.712)

− 4.546

(6.185)

− 0.192

(0.360)

1.746**

(0.730)

Coups—outflows

− 0.265

(5.349)

0.217

(0.263)

0.362

(0.404)

6.186

(4.624)

0.293

(0.265)

− 0.120

(0.344)

− 6.936

(6.082)

0.483

(0.311)

− 0.349

(0.510)

− 13.114

(7.674)

− 0.224

(0.433)

0.073

(0.507)

Goodness of fit

Indegree or inflows

0.680

0.040

0.564

0.687

0.212

0.055

0.824

0.369

0.386

0.884

0.134

0.188

Outdegree or outflows

0.836

0.304

0.024

0.802

0.224

0.020

0.732

0.445

0.205

0.282

0.924

0.237