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Table 1 Gravity model parameters after fitting the data at multiple years (rows) for both migrants (left columns) and returnees (right columns)

From: Looking for a better future: modeling migrant mobility

  Migrants Returnees
Year Pop. Dist. GDPpc R2 Pop. Dist. GDPpc R2
2016 1.864**    0.268 1.070*    0.195
2017 1.698**    0.291 1.277*    0.260
2018 1.601***    0.452 1.096*    0.259
2019 1.499***    0.545 1.389**    0.349
2016 0.523*** -0.619***   0.652 0.448*** -0.756***   0.767
2017 0.542*** -0.709***   0.794 0.512*** -0.693***   0.740
2018 0.677*** -0.644***   0.866 0.515*** -0.723***   0.781
2019 0.741*** -0.568***   0.868 0.594*** -0.669***   0.796
2016 0.633*** -0.653*** -0.182 0.672 0.518*** -0.777*** -0.115 0.775
2017 0.532*** -0.705*** 0.017 0.794 0.557*** -0.709*** -0.075 0.743
2018 0.665*** -0.639*** 0.021 0.866 0.575*** -0.745*** -0.102 0.788
2019 0.720*** -0.561*** 0.035 0.869 0.658*** -0.692*** -0.108 0.803
  1. The dependent variable is the number of individuals per type of population (migrant or returnee) at each year for each Colombian department. Independent variables include (i) Population of the hosting department (Pop.), (ii) Distance of the hosting department to Caracas, Venezuela (Dist.) and (iii) the hosting department’s GDP per capita (GDPpc). Independent variables have been added progressively. The explained variance (R2) is shown in the table for each model realization. The significance levels are indicated next to the coefficients: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01 and *** p<0.001. Tables showing results using other Venezuelan cities as reference points are included in the SI