Fig. 9

The mean-field steady state probabilities of societal risks being active for each network from 2013 to 2017. “Failure of urban planning” greatly decreases after 2014. Food and water crises gradually decrease with the global effort to address them. “Large-scale involuntary migration” drastically increases in 2016, due to the 2015 European Union migration crisis. It is largely affected by high risk of “State collapse”, “Interstate conflict” and “National governance failure” in 2015. “Profound political and social instability” gradually increases from 2014 to 2016 as a consequence of rising “Interstate conflict”, while “Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases” maintains a steady and low risk level