Analysis of the global trade network using exponential random graph models

Applied Network Science

Table 7 ERGM estimates and standard errors alongside their significance on edge formation

Configuration	Estimate	Standard error	Significance
Edges	− 4.545	0.292	***
Mutual	0.212	0.067	**
Triangle	0.030	0.003	***
GDP (Current US$) nodecov	0.185	0.020	***
GDP (Current US$) absdiff	0.272	0.024	***
Inflation, consumer prices nodecov	− 0.040	0.022	.
Inflation, consumer prices absdiff	0.036	0.028
GDP growth nodecov	− 0.010	0.017
GDP growth absdiff	− 0.027	0.023
Is landlocked nodematch	− 0.220	0.039	***
Official language nodematch	− 0.014	0.063
Diplomatic exchange network edgecov	− 1.677	0.079	***
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) nodecov	− 0.052	0.022	*
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) absdiff	0.090	0.028	**
Industry (including construction), value added (% of GDP) nodecov	0.055	0.020	**
Industry (including construction), value added (% of GDP) absdiff	− 0.114	0.026	***
Merchandise trade (% of GDP) nodecov	0.046	0.017	**
Merchandise trade (% of GDP) absdiff	− 0.031	0.026
Net barter terms of trade index (2000 = 100) nodecov	0.040	0.015	*
Net barter terms of trade index (2000 = 100) absdiff	− 0.090	0.024	***
Foreign direct investment, net inflows nodecov	− 1.474	0.199	***
Foreign direct investment, net inflows absdiff	1.352	0.200	***
Colonial History network edgecov	− 0.513	0.603
Distance network edgecov	0.190	0.030	***