Fig. 10

Effect of vaccination speed. We show the Monte Carlo estimation (over 100 independent simulations) of the cumulative fraction of infections among all adults (blue) and children (orange) at the end of the pandemic outbreak, as a function of the vaccination speed in percentage of the total population daily vaccinated, the vaccination is stopped when \(V=60\%\). The solid curves refer to Vaccination strategy I, in which only adults are eligible for vaccination; the dashed curve refers to Vaccination strategy II, in which vaccine shots are randomly assigned to the entire population. In (a), we consider the original strain; the vertical bands represent the confidence interval with respect to the decreased infectiousness of children. In (b), we consider the Alpha variant; the vertical bands represent the confidence interval with respect to the increased infectiousness of the Alpha variant. The parameters used in the simulations are listed in Table 2, \(q_a=0.25\), and \(q_c=0.12\)