Fig. 3

Time series of the mobilization size in states in a hypothetical compliance campaign: the case of a New York, b California, and c Texas. The campaign is assumed to start from New York City on March 11. The solid black line is the median time series of 100 simulations denoted by transparent lines. The interquartile range of 100 simulations is denoted by grey shades. The red curve shows the cumulative number of confirmed cases as recorded in The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies. The dates of actual lockdowns are denoted by vertical red dotted lines, and the dates when the mobilization size of the median time series reaches 0.003% of the state population is denoted by blue (earlier than lockdowns) or black (later than lockdowns) dotted lines. See Additional file 1 for the result for all states