Fig. 8

Simulation of the case of a 15-day phasing out of the lockdown. A. Representation of the ~ 19% of simulation results that have a second wave of infection if the lockdown is from day 5 to day 65 and complete normalcy resumes on day 80. The effective reproduction number starts to increase during the phasing out of the mitigation measures. B. Representation of the ~ 43% of simulation results that have only one wave of infection if the lockdown is from day 5 to day 65 and complete normalcy resumes on day 80. Comparing with Fig. 5, we note that a gradual phasing-out of the lockdown reduces the chances of a second wave of infection