Fig. 3
From: Dynamics of crime activities in the network of city community areas
Quality of prediction of the numbers of crimes. a Impact of the size of historical data. The plot shows the crime prediction accuracy for future time window size of one month as a function of the various lengths of historical data. The prediction accuracy improves with the increasing size of data the most for short historical data without census information. The improvement is smaller for longer historical data. With the length of historical data of 12 months the R-squared reached 0.960 from the bottom of 0.379, and it reached the highest level at 24 month length of historical data with R-squared of 0.9680. With census data, the bottom of 0.9436 was reached with the length of historical data at 2 months, and the peak was 0.9682 with that length at 31 months. b Impact of the census data. The plot shows the accuracy of predictions with the length of historical data of 1 month and with and without census data. The fluctuations of performance are smaller for the predictions with census information regardless of the length of historical data