Fig. 8

The mean-field steady state probabilities of geopolitical risks being active for each of the networks from 2013 to 2017. “State collapse” and “Failure of national governance” have very similar behavior, since both of them describe risks inside nations and reflect the instability of their governments. Together with interstate conflicts, those risks significantly increase in 2015, and gradually decrease afterward. They may be caused by ISIS and the Ukraine crisis in 2014. Terrorist attacks happen more frequently in 2017, while growing illicit trade elevated levels of risk starting in 2016. This may be an affect of high risks of “State collapse”, “Interstate conflict” and “National governance failure” during 2015. Risks associated with weapons of mass destruction remain low over the 5 year span