Fig. 13

The average number of risk activations at each time step, measured over 100 runs, plotted as a function of time for the models with (red line) and without network effects (blue line). For comparison, the black curve represents the number of times risk activation was observed in the historical data. The purple and orange curves demonstrate what multiple of standard deviation is needed to get curves above and below the mean so they cover all points of historical data, for network model and independent model, respectively. This multiple is significantly lower, 1.82, for network model than for independent model (2.67). Thus, the extreme historical data point among 156 such points has probability of 3.4% to appear in network model, which is highly likely, but only 0.38% for the independent model, which in contrast is unlikely to appear with this number of historical data, demonstrating poor match between historical data and the independent model